GDP for the Q1 announced!
The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (April-June) Q1, of 2019-20, both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP.
I (a) Estimates at Constant (2011-12) Prices:
GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q1 of 2019-20 is estimated at ₹35.85 lakh crore, as against ₹34.14lakh crore in Q1 of 2018-19, showing a growth rate of 5.0 percent. Quarterly GVA at Basic Price at Constant (2011-12) Prices for Q1 of 2019-20 is estimated at ₹33.48 lakh crore, as against ₹31.90 lakh crore in Q1 of 2018-19, showing a growth rate of 4.9 percent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.
The economic activities which registered growth of over 7 percent in Q1 of 2019-20 over Q1 of 2018-19 are ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services’, ‘Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services Related to Broadcasting’ and ‘Public Administration, Defence and Other Services’. The growth in the ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’, ‘Mining and Quarrying’, ‘Manufacturing’, ‘Construction’ and ‘Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services’ is estimated to be 2.0 percent, 2.7 percent, 0.6 percent, 5.7percent, and 5.9 percent, respectively, during this period.
Industry analysis:
The first quarter estimates are based on agricultural production during Rabi season of 2018-19 (which ended in June 2019) obtained from the Department of Agriculture, Cooperation & Farmers Welfare, for Livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for Milk, Egg, Meat and Wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry & Dairying and Fish production data from Department of Fisheries have been used.
Index of Industrial Production (IIP); monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and of State Government expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) for the period April-June 2019-20 have been used.
With the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 1st July 2017 and consequent changes in the tax structure, the total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue and GST revenue. Performance of key sectors like Transport including Railways, Road, Air and Water Transport etc, Communication, Banking and Insurance during the period April-June 2019-20 has been taken into account while compiling the estimates. Performance of the corporate sector during April-June 2019-20 based on data received from BSE / NSE has been taken into account.
Manufacturing:
Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 2019-20 from ‘Manufacturing’ sector grew by 0.6 percent as compared to growth of 12.1 percent in Q1 2018-19. The growth of organised sector (which has a share of more than 75 percent in the Manufacturing sector) was estimated from available data of listed companies with BSE and NSE. The Quasi-Corporate and Unorganized segment (which has a share of more than 20 percent in the Manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of Manufacturing. IIP Manufacturing registered growth rate of 3.2 percent during Q1 of 2019-20 as compared to 5.1 percent during Q1 of 2018-19.
I (a) (b) Estimates at Current Prices:
GDP at Current Prices in Q1 2019-20 is estimated at ₹48.93 lakh crore, as against ₹45.31 lakh crore in Q1 2018-19, showing a growth rate of 8.0 percent. GVA at Basic Price at Current Prices in Q1 2019-20, is estimated at ₹45.14 lakh crore, as against ₹41.82 lakh crore in Q1 2018-19, showing an increase of 7.9 percent. Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ (7.9 percent), ‘Mining and Quarrying’ (5.5 percent), ‘Manufacturing’ (2.0 percent), ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services’ (8.7 percent) ‘Construction’ (8.6 percent), 'Trade, Hotels, Transport and Communication' (10.7 percent), 'Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services' (6.4 percent), and ‘Public Administration, Defence and Other Services' (14.0 percent).
I (c) Price Indices used as deflators:
The Wholesale Price Index (WPI), in respect of the groups - Food Articles, Minerals, Manufactured Products, Electricity and all Commodities have risen by 6.9 percent, 19.4 percent, 1.4 percent, 0.03 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively, during Q1 of 2019-20 as against 1.5 percent, 11.0 percent, 3.8 percent, 5.6 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively, in Q1 2018-19. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a rise of 3.1 percent during Q1 2019-20 over Q1 2018-19.
